Tough Decisions on Iran: Turkey’s Zero Problems Dilemma
DEVELOPMENTS
The Islamic Republic of Iran and E.U. Foreign Policy Chief, Catherine Ashton – representing the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany – have agreed to resume diplomatic talks on December 5. At this stage, it is not clear whether Iran’s nuclear program will be on the agenda, given Iran’s position that its right to nuclear technology is “non-negotiable.”
As a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran maintains the right to peaceful nuclear technology; however, its failure to disclose its nuclear activities to the IAEA, as it is required to do under its treaty obligations, has raised serious concerns among its neighbors and the international community, many of whom suspect that Iran’s nuclear program includes a weapons component. The emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran may embolden a vocally anti-Western theocratic regime, while triggering a nuclear arms race and increasing instability in the already volatile Middle East.
The U.S. and its allies have thus far failed to identify an effective short- or long-term policy to address Iran’s determination to acquire nuclear capabilities. In particular, the U.S. remains hesitant to take unilateral military action to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, despite renewed calls by Israel for a “credible military threat.” Meanwhile, the adoption of smart sanctions is likely to prove ineffective. This may explain the concurrent path for defensive measures that the U.S. and its NATO allies have chosen to pursue through the new NATO Strategic Concept, which outlines the Alliance’s priorities for the coming decade and was recently adopted at the NATO summit in Lisbon.
Key to the success of the NATO defensive measures is Turkey’s support. Turkey was proposed as the host of certain components of the missile defense system, which was designed to deal with a potential Iranian missile threat. This was not an easy sell to Ankara, given its growing regional broker status and economic interests in Iran. Although Turkey agreed to support the development of the missile defense system on Turkish territory, it insisted on not naming Iran explicitly in the Strategic Concept as a target country. This illustrates Turkey’s balancing act between eastward-looking economic interests and westward-looking security commitments. As U.S. and international pressure on Iran grows, Turkey’s evolving diplomatic posture towards Tehran remains an area of much international speculation, and much importance.
BACKGROUND
Since the rise of the AK (Justice and Development) Party in 2002, Turkey has made headway on its path toward economic, social, legal and political reform. Along the way, Turkey also appears to have recalibrated its foreign policy strategy. Most notably, Turkey has begun to emphasize some of the same characteristics that have arguably precluded the country from serious consideration for E.U. membership in the past: its Muslim identity and its geographic position straddling Europe and the Middle East.
Over the past few years, Turkey has pursued a “zero problems towards neighbors,” approach to its foreign policy. This strategy has strengthened the country’s role in the Middle East, particularly with regard to Iran. In addition to growing economic ties to Iran, which includes a recent energy agreement, Turkey has also taken a strong stance on Iran’s nuclear development program. In particular, Turkey refused to support U.N. sanctions earlier this year, and instead, opted to back the Tehran Declaration, which proposes Western help in procuring enriched uranium for Iranian civilian nuclear power. Despite Tehran’s claims that its nuclear program is intended to serve peaceful civilian purposes, there is growing concern in the U.S., Europe, and several Arab states that it is in fact intended to serve Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.
Turkey has also pursued closer relations with its Arab neighbors. It has strengthened its ties to Syria through an increased economic role in the country and engagement in joint military exercises. Meanwhile, it has continued to extend economic and political assistance to the Palestinian National Authority. Although Turkey appeared to be drifting from its role as mediator between Israel and Syria, following Israel’s 2008 offensive in Gaza, there nonetheless appear to be signs of revitalization. Economic cooperation with Iraq is also growing rapidly, though Ankara watches political developments in the Kurdish northern Iraq region wearily amid continued concerns about its own Kurdish separatists.
Despite Turkey’s shifting focus toward the Middle East, however, it remains an important player in the Western world. Aside from its secular ideology – which is deeply rooted in the republic’s history – and its location, Turkey is also a key NATO ally and remains committed to economic cooperation with the E.U., its largest trading partner. As such Turkey has sought to improve its relations with Armenia, while pursuing stability in the Balkans by volunteering its assistance in mediation talks between Kosovo and Serbia.
ANALYSIS
As Iran continues to advance its nuclear program, it also continues to fuel concerns regarding the potential use of such technology, threatening stability in the Middle East and the interests of the U.S. and its allies in the region. In fact, anticipating continued Iranian efforts to forge ahead with its nuclear program, Israel has already begun pushing for military action to forestall Iran’s progress. It is in the context of another round of potentially ineffective diplomacy and sanctions, and the rising threat of military action that Turkey is presented with a true opportunity to emerge as a regional power.
In light of Turkey’s rising role in the Middle East, however, it seems unlikely to dramatically disrupt its ties with Iran and fully embrace the role NATO has proposed in the new NATO Strategic Concept. Nonetheless, Turkey also stands to lose, not merely an opportunity to prevent further regional instability, but also in its political ambitions as a rising regional power-broker if Iran does indeed emerge as a nuclear weapons state. Turkey also stands to lose more economically from strained relations with the E.U. than with Iran, while also damaging its credibility by appearing not to take its NATO obligations seriously.
Turkey’s evolving alliances are still in the formative stage, particularly with regard to Iran, and there is still time to adjust its “zero problems” strategy. The U.S. should continue to pressure Turkey, using tough diplomacy and the help of the E.U. and friendly Arab states, to play a more constructive regional role and to adopt a foreign policy that increases stability in the Middle East.
Dardana Rruka is a lawyer based in Washington, DC, and trained in public international law and international security affairs.
