Scaling the Climate Summit: Reaching a Deal This December Will Be a Major Climb
DEVELOPMENTS
The European Union has declared as one of its main policy objectives for 2009 the signing of a global treaty on climate change. In December, a summit to address the issue will be held in Copenhagen under the umbrella of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
A leader in addressing climate change, the EU confirmed its intention to unilaterally reduce emissions with its Climate and Energy Package in December 2008. Combined with the Obama Administration’s promise to cooperatively tackle the issue of climate change and publicly-made commitments by major developing nations (see Brazil’s national plan, for example), this made the challenging task of reaching a global deal seem less daunting.
Not easy, simply less daunting. The New Year has clouded this picture. For the second time since 2006, a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas shut down supplies, closing schools and businesses and shocking the European energy market. Moreover, the world economic crisis has raised questions about the availability of financing and continued governmental support, putting some renewable energy projects–a cornerstone of EU energy policy – at risk. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, major investments in energy efficiency and renewables are needed, but nations face a tenuous balancing act of meeting their climate objectives while preserving economic competitiveness and fighting off recession.
BACKGROUND
The meeting in Copenhagen is the latest in a long series of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations. The first international gathering to address climate change occurred in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, resulting in the formation of the UNFCCC , a Convention with the non-binding objective “to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations.”
A lack of progress on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – which trap heat in our atmosphere and are changing the world’s climate – led to the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which set legally binding targets for industrialized nations. However, the Protocol did not enter into force until the Russian Federation ratified it in 2005. The U.S. did not ratify the Protocol, but is a signatory of the UNFCCC.
The scientific urgency of action on climate change and the expiration of Kyoto’s commitments at the end of 2012 create the need for a new treaty. The EU Energy and Climate Package marks the EU’s starting point for negotiations: a 20% unilateral reduction of GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2020, to be raised to 30% if comparable action is taken by other nations. The Brazilian government has announced its own plans to reduce GHG emissions, with a pointed focus on drastically reducing rates of deforestation. Brazil, like other developing countries, has no requirement to reduce emissions under the UN Framework Convention or the Kyoto Protocol; thus, the announcement is viewed by many as a dramatic step forward. Several other key nations (i.e. China, India, Mexico, South Africa, etc.) have also developed strategies to control GHG emissions growth. Also productive, Democratic leaders in the U.S. House and Senate are determined to draft domestic climate legislation this year.
Yet climate change and policies to address it do not occur in a bubble, and recent developments have underscored the challenges for many European nations. The EU’s dependence on natural gas in general and supplies from Russia in particular – explored by Blair Glencorse in this Digest last year – has implications for climate and energy policy as well as national security. Several EU nations are considering a turn to a long-taboo source of energy (nuclear), which could simultaneously address energy and national security concerns while also meeting GHG reduction goals. These surprising commitments come alongside increased European resolve to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy supplies, as well as plans to diversify the supply of natural gas through the construction of additional natural gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals.
ANALYSIS
Climate change policy should be a bellwether for the new working relationship between the EU and the U.S. The EU will be pushing hard for a deal, and the Europeans know that no treaty is possible without U.S. participation. Other major players in this process include Russia, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Japan, and Canada. While many developing countries (including China, India, and Brazil) have developed domestic plans to constrain the growth of GHG emissions, none are prepared as yet to take legally binding commitments under the UNFCCC process. U.S. domestic legislation committed to significantly reducing emissions would drastically improve the chances of a treaty and likely alter the position of some developing countries. The travails of the economic stimulus bill prove this will be no easy task.
Some otherwise less powerful nations have gathered together into factions (for example, the Alliance of Small Island States or the G77) to exercise significant influence on the process as well. These countries also will not commit to a deal without concessions including binding commitments to assist with technology transfer and adaptation. Additional key technical issues to watch include: the rules for participation in an expanded carbon credit trading market; the reduction of deforestation emissions; and the future of the Clean Development Mechanism. Agreements on targets and timelines for reductions and financing are essential to getting a deal and also, more importantly, to actually addressing climate change.
Two key indicators of the chances of success this year are the scope of U.S. domestic legislation and the first two rounds of preliminary negotiations in Bonn (March-April and June). Gatherings of key nations outside the UN process (the G8, the G20, NATO) will also help assess the chances of a deal this year. If climate change is a major issue in these venues, then the chances of a deal in Copenhagen improve accordingly. The EU and many of its members (especially the U.K. and Germany) will push hard for a global deal in Copenhagen. While the winds have shifted, the prospects of reaching a treaty this year remain cloudy. Negotiations will run up right until the last minutes in Copenhagen.
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Dominic Marcellino is a Robert Bosch Fellow, currently working at the German Federal Ministry of the Environment. He writes in his personal capacity.