DEVELOPMENTS
Representatives from the Sudanese government met with various rebel groups this weekend in Sirte, Libya, for a new round of peace talks concerning Darfur. The talks were aimed at ending the four year conflict between the government of Sudan and tribal rebel groups. But as the world’s attention drew to resolving the Darfur crisis, a former conflict was resurfacing.
The 21-year civil war between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the north and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the south caused the deaths of two million people. The war ended in 2005 with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the NCP and the SPLM. An integral part of the CPA was the appointment of SPLM leader, Salva Kiir to Vice President of Sudan. But two weeks ago, Vice President Kiir withdrew from the government, protesting the failure of the NCP to meet its obligations under the peace deal. As tension between north and south begins to mount, the international community may have to revisit a conflict thought to have been resolved two years ago.
BACKGROUND
Sudan, Africa’s largest country, gained its independence from Great Britain in 1956. But in drawing up the borders of the new nation, the UK did more to incite conflict than establish national identity. The Muslim and Arab northern Sudan had little in common with the Christian and animist southern Sudan. Further exacerbating the situation, the civil and administrative offices were entirely established in the north, leaving the southern region of the country with few contacts to the national government. Over time, many in the south became disenfranchised with the concentration of power among the Arab elite. A separatist movement in the southern region of Sudan gained steam.
In 1989, current President Omar al-Bashir, a Muslim, came to power in a coup d’etat. The support al-Bashir and the NCP received from two strong neighboring Arab nations (Egypt and Saudi Arabia) only increased tension with the predominantly Christian south. Meanwhile, various rebel movements in the south united under the SPLM. For over twenty years the SPLM was led by the charismatic, if not controversial Col. John Garang. Although it was at times unclear whether Garang wanted southern Sudan to secede or gain more autonomy, he was consistent in calling for control over oil in the southern region.
This oil, however, actually lies along the north-south divide rather than in clear southern territory. The areas of controversy – the city of Abyei, the Nuba region, and the Blue Nile delta – could arguably belong to either the north or the south. The 2005 CPA also included north-south power sharing provisions concerning the oil. It allocated oil revenues between the NCP and the SPLM and set a timetable for further negotiations. Additionally, the CPA set out two important dates: in 2009 nationwide elections are to be held, and in 2011 there will be a referendum on southern Sudan’s secession.
Salva Kiir alleges that al-Bashir is deliberately impeding implementation of the CPA. Kiir demands that the NCP share oil revenues in Abyei, withdraw troops from southern Sudan, and release southern Sudan’s political detainees.
ANALYSIS
When the CPA was signed in 2005, it was a powerful victory for the Bush administration. If it unravels, the peace talks over Darfur could be the next to fall apart. Even with international support, al-Bashir will not have capacity to negotiate reconciliation in Darfur if his government in Khartoum lacks stability.
China and the United States, however, can each play a role in pressuring al-Bashir’s NCP to implement the CPA. China is a major trading partner of Sudan and could use its influence to urge al-Bashir to relinquish control of the oilfields. The United States could threaten to condition Sudanese aid money to meeting CPA benchmarks. A similar tactic was used to drive progress in Darfur in 2005. There is still time for reconciliation between northern and southern Sudan. Some suggest that Kiir’s pullout was a political stunt, strategically timed to overshadow the Darfur peace talks. Regardless of his motives, Kiir’s withdrawal has drawn much needed attention to the other conflict brewing in Sudan.
Olivier Kamanda is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Policy Digest.
