Rahul Gandhi: Heir Apparent to the Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty
DEVELOPMENTS
Indian media coverage of recent diplomatic dynamics centered on Rahul Gandhi’s remarks to the U.S. Ambassador to India that Hindu extremism could pose a greater threat to the nation than Islamic militants. Coalition government spokespeople scrambled to perform damage control, and the press questioned whether Gandhi was responsible for the Congress party’s failure in elections recently held in Bihar state.
Gandhi’s comments were certainly controversial in a Hindu majority nation. But attention on Gandhi is outsized for his role as just one of the 545 members of Lok Sabha, the lower house of Indian parliament. The spotlight results from his much-anticipated potential.
Prime Minister Singh serves in office because he is backed by Sonia Gandhi, Rahul’s mother and Congress party chief; and it is likely that the 40-year-old Rahul Gandhi will be the Congress party’s next prime ministerial candidate in 2014. India’s “crown prince” may finally emerge as “King” and cement the Gandhi clan as the world’s most enduring political dynasty.
BACKGROUND
The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has been a powerful force enduring in Indian politics from the 1930s, onwards. Rahul Gandhi’s great-grandfather, Jawarhalal Nehru, was a prominent freedom fighter and India’s first prime minister, from 1947-1964. Nehru’s daughter, Indira Gandhi (no relation to Mahatma Gandhi), was Prime Minister from 1966-1977, and 1980-1984. After Indira Gandhi was assassinated, her son Rajiv Gandhi became prime minister and served from 1984-1989. Rajiv Gandhi was himself assassinated in 1991, while preparing to campaign again. Initially Sonia Gandhi, Rajiv’s grieving Italian-born widow, declined to run for office, despite the calls to do so.
Sonia still emerged as the undisputed leader of the Congress party by 2000. Today, Forbes magazine ranks Sonia Gandhi among the ten most powerful people in the world. In 2004, she designated Manmohan Singh to become prime minister, as her foreign origins came in the way of her assuming India’s highest office. In 2009, Sonia successfully campaigned with Rahul and daughter Priyanka Vadra, to propel Singh and the United Progressive Alliance back to power. Given such a lineage, it is almost certain that the Harvard-educated Rahul has pole position to run the country.
With India’s economy growing at a steady 9% per year, and recognition that the country will play a significant role in global affairs, the impetus for visits by foreign leaders and business delegations have shifted toward promoting trade and strategic alliances, rather than addressing flareups with Pakistan. Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh (2004-present), A.B. Vajpayee (1998-2004), and Narashima Rao (1991-1996) all deserve credit for helping India craft a new foreign policy in a post-Soviet world. But the octogenarians who have dominated Indian politics may soon cede space to the Western-educated scions of politics and business.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently announced that Gandhi should lead Congress in the 2014 elections; and P. Chidambaram, India’s powerful Home Minister, endorsed Gandhi’s “vision” for India. Other young Ivy League-educated leaders, such as Jyotiradia Scindia and Sachin Pilot — both of whose fathers served Rajiv Gandhi — accept Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, and are likely to emerge as key figures in Indian government.
Although the Gandhi family and their allies have a firm grip on the Congress party, they do not dominate the political landscape unchallenged. As the Indian electorate has fragmented along religious, caste, and ethnic divides, the pan-Indian appeal of the Gandhi family has waned. Moreover, the unearthing of a massive corruption scandal affecting the UPA government, business elites, and the Indian media may allow the opposition to mount an effective attack in 2014. Coalition governments have ruled India since 1989, and this trend is likely to continue.
Gandhi has attempted to reverse this coalition trend through several strategies. First, he declined a ministerial position to instead rebuild the Congress party with a focus on India’s youth. Second, Gandhi has favored Congress contesting elections without alliance partners in key state contests, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These states are traditional bastions of Congress, and are critical to any long-term plans of winning national elections without partner parties. Third, Rahul and Sonia Gandhi have conscientiously shown interest in social welfare programs. The Gandhis are connecting with impoverished and marginalized Muslim and Dalit communities, supporting tribes in a battle against mining companies, and criticizing uneven economic growth.
Such strategies allow Rahul Gandhi to take credit for the UPA’s success, while distancing himself from the adverse impact of coalition policies.
ANALYSIS
The Gandhi family will probably dominate Congress for the foreseeable future, regardless of whether Rahul Gandhi wins in 2014. Priyanka’s active entry into politics cannot be ruled out either. Although some analysts consider Rahul to be hesitant and a poor public speaker, he still has the potential to become an effective politician. He enjoys goodwill among the Indian electorate and media, and had avoided controversy until the diplomatic scandal. Eschewing a ministerial post to instead concentrate on grassroots issues indicates a determination to learn the challenges facing India. Despite the Bihar setback, Gandhi’s go-it-alone preference is admired by Congress workers in states such as Tamil Nadu, where the party has been out of power since 1967.
Gandhi’s surname gives him an edge over other contenders, and instant recognition among global leaders. He would also be the first Indian Prime Minister who is half-caucasian, and the first to have studied in the United States, which would likely enhance India’s already pro-U.S. posture during a Gandhi administration.
Given the rampant corruption associated with the current government, its reputation for being soft on national security, and the dismay many egalitarian Indians feel toward Congress’ inability to find a non-Gandhi to lead, the onus is squarely on Rahul to prove himself as more than just a privileged and handsome dynasty member, worthy of running the world’s largest democracy.
Despite the power of communist parties and a motley crew of regional parties, opposition to Congress in 2014 will probably coalesce around the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Yet no BJP leader inspires confidence that he can successfully lead a diverse coalition and replicate the successful tenure of Atal Vajpayee, the only time a non-Congress government lasted a full term in office. Narendra Modi is respected for his administrative competence, and popular among the BJP base, but is unacceptable to coalition partners because of his anti-Muslim reputation. Arun Jaitley, the media-friendly face of the BJP, is an astute lawyer and strategist, but lacks mass appeal. Nitish Kumar, the victor of the recent Bihar elections, is also discussed as a future NDA leader, but is from a non-BJP party.
Although Indians today are generally optimistic about the future, numerous problems remain, ranging from a serious internal Maoist insurgency to volatile relations with Pakistan and China. To date, Rahul Gandhi has had the luxury of cherry-picking issues to tackle and keeping a low profile, thanks to his ongoing discovery of Indian politics. However, the clock is ticking, and he will have to confront these problems in the next few years if he emerges as India’s next Prime Minister or opposition leader.
At that time we will learn what the young Mr. Gandhi is really made of, and if he deserves to be considered a new global power broker.
Karthik Nagarajan is a New York-licensed attorney working in Washington D.C.
