North Korea and the Sinking of the Cheonan Warship
BACKGROUND
Tensions on the Korean peninsula are the highest that they have been in nearly two decades, following the intentional sinking of the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, on March 26th by a torpedo launched from a North Korean submarine. The sinking killed 46 South Korean sailors.
North and South Korea have effectively been at war following the hostilities from 1950 to 1953, despite the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement on July 27th, 1953 – for all intents and purposes, a faux peace treaty. Rhetoric on both sides has steadily risen since a team of international inspectors concluded that the Cheonan’s sinking was the result of hostile actions by North Korea, and not accidental.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters during a May 25th press conference with the South Korean Foreign Minister, Yu Myung-hwan, that “We cannot turn a blind eye to belligerence and provocation…This was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea, and the international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond.”
DEVELOPMENTS
A Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group (JIG) conducted an investigation of the sinking and concluded: “ROKS [Republic of Korea] ‘Cheonan’ was split apart and sunk due to a shockwave and bubble effect produced by an underwater torpedo explosion…The North Korean military is in possession of a fleet of about 70 submarines…It also possesses torpedoes of various capabilities including straight running, acoustic and wake homing torpedoes with a net explosive weight of about 200 to 300kg, which can deliver the same level of damage that was delivered to the ROKS ‘Cheonan.”
Aside from the report issued by the JIG, a separate investigation being conducted by the United Nations Command into the sinking of the Cheonan is ongoing. Members of the Command (including the U.S., Britain, Australia, France, New Zealand, Turkey, Denmark, Sweden, and others) are not expected to release their findings until June at the earliest; and any reports would first be submitted to the United Nations Security Council for review.
Because this provocative act by North Korea can effectively be considered an act of war, there are several options of proceeding available to the international community, and in particular, to the United States. There are few precedents to go on: what distinguishes the attack on the Cheonan from past aggressive acts by the autarkic North is that a military target was attacked, not a civilian one. According to Thomas Hubbard, “This is a profoundly different kind of attack on South Korea than we’ve seen in recent times. It is a military attack on a military target — a violation of the armistice — rather than an act of terrorism.” Punishment for violating the armistice might indeed be an armed confrontation with the heavily militarized North. This option, if it were to escalate into a wider conflict, could quickly involve several of the major regional, and world, powers in a dangerous game of playing chicken.
Following the release of the Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group report, North Korea attempted to de-legitimize the findings as an act of propaganda. Maj. Gen. Pak Rim Su, the Director of the North Korean Policy Department of the National Defence Commission, bluntly claimed that the South Koreans fabricated the sinking of the Cheonan. “The case of the warship sinking is a fabrication and charade orchestrated by the south Korean puppet authorities from A to Z.”
Among other claims made by Maj. Gen. Pak Rim Su, “The South Korean puppet regime’s faked sinking of the Cheonan has created a very serious situation on the Korean peninsula, pushing it towards the brink of war…These anti-North Korean confrontations are an open declaration of war against us and an extraordinarily criminal act that pushes inter-Korean relations into a state of war.”
The North Koreans have also abrogated several bilateral military agreements with South Korea, which were to limit the possibility of war between the two nations. The North dangerously began by severing all communications with their southern neighbor; it also announced that a naval hotline would cease operations between the two countries. This hotline, intended to communicate any concerns between the two countries as they relate to their shared bodies of water, is vital for maintaining transparency and trust. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), quoting a North Korean military official, said, “We will immediately deliver a physical strike at anyone intruding across our maritime demarcation line.”
While severing these important communication links between the two countries adds a level of uncertainty, neither country has attempted to entirely limit access to the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), where hundreds of South and North Koreans work. The Congressional Research Service describes the KIC as “an industrial park located in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) just across the demilitarized zone from South Korea. Currently, over 50 medium-sized South Korean companies are using North Korean labor to manufacture products in Kaesong…The complex was planned, developed, and financed largely by South Korea.” However, the North shuttered the Consultative Office, which was established in the zone.
The KIC represents one of the last vestiges of the Sunshine Policy established in 1998 by former President Kim Dae Jung, and the North Korean regime understands the blow to relations its rejection creates. Its Korean Central News Agency issued a statement announcing the following, “The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.”
The statement was followed with these intentions by the North Korean regime: “All relations with the puppet authorities will be severed; The work of the Panmunjom Red Cross liaison representatives will be completely suspended; The Consultative Office for North-South Economic Cooperation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be frozen and dismantled and all the personnel concerned of the south side will be expelled without delay…We will start all-out counterattack against the puppet group’s ‘psychological warfare against the north; The passage of south Korean ships and airliners through the territorial waters and air of our side will be totally banned; All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law (and); here is no need to show any mercy or patience for such confrontation maniacs, sycophants and traitors and wicked warmongers as the (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak group.”
ANALYSIS
With heightened tensions on the peninsula pointing to a possible confrontation between the two Koreas, the looming questions are what roles the United States and China will play in the coming weeks and months. The United States is closely monitoring situations on the ground, but has not raised its military profile in the region. One possible explanation is that there presently are a substantial numbers of ships, troops and aircraft already in and around South Korea.
According to the Council of Foreign Relations, the U.S. has approximately 25,000 troops based in South Korea, with an additional 16,000 troops stationed in Japan. Additionally, the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet is stationed in the region with assets of “a large deck carrier, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington at Yokosuka base in Japan, with its 75 warplanes, 2 guided missile cruisers, 4 guided missile destroyers and 2 attack submarines – most equipped to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles.”
The avoidance of war in the region is the ultimate goal of China, the U.S., and South Korea. For that reason, the Chinese have been reluctant to issue declarative statements about who sank the Cheonan; however, Premier Wen Jiabao did offer his condolences at a meeting with the South Korean Prime Minister Chung Un-chan for the 46 South Korean sailors killed. According to Jiabao, “The most urgent thing for us to do is to address security risks on the Korean Peninsula, which have been growing since the naval incident occurred…In particular, we have to focus on preventing possible armed clashes between the two Koreas.” Because China realizes that the United States has historic ties to South Korea, and that there is international pressure for the Chinese to be more engaged and less protective of North Korea, Premier Wen Jiabao suggested that his government “will not protect” the individual states responsible for the sinking of the warship.This will be an important regional stance, as North Korea behaves increasingly erratically (most experts believe it is Kim Jung Ill’s attempts to prepare leadership transition to his son).
As relations between North and South Korea further deteriorate, all sides involved – including the U.S., China, North and South Korea – will have determine whether war is path dependent or whether the status quo can be restored.
John Lyman is the Administrative Editor of Foreign Policy Digest.
