No Longer Playing “Good Cop, Bad Cop?”: How North Korean Provocations May Drive China To Lay Down the Law
DEVELOPMENTS
Amidst North Korean threats of retaliation, on December 20, South Korea pushed forward with military drills on Yeonpyeong Island. To the surprise of some Korea watchers, North Korea has remained silent and has yet to show any form of aggression in response. Since North Korea’s recent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island — which resulted in four South Korean deaths — and the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan earlier last year, the political climate in Seoul has turned sharply against any leniency toward Pyongyang.
During a recent meeting between South Korean president Lee Myung Bak and Dai Bingguo, Lee asked China to show a “more fair and responsible attitude in its relations with South and North Korea,”–rather than to refrain from criticism toward North Korea. Both South Korea and the U.S. have told China that they will not tolerate any further North Korean provocations. Under increased pressure from both Seoul and Washington, China has been forced to do what it has hesitated to do in the past: take a more decisive and critical stance toward North Korean provocation.
BACKGROUND
As discussed by last month’s Foreign Policy Digest article by contributor Won Park, 2010 has been fraught with numerous defiant North Korean provocations, frustrated South Korean responses, and relatively weak, public responses from the Chinese.
New Mexico Governor and former U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson’s recent visit to Pyongyang yielded some concessions, including Pyongyang’s consenting to the return of international inspectors to North Korea and the relinquishing of its 12,000 plutonium fuel rods. Although this is noteworthy progress, neither the U.S. nor South Korea has shown much in the way of response, opting to wait until North Korea takes further steps to denuclearize, before agreeing to return to the 6-party talks.
Although China has been recognized as a regional leader both economically and politically, it has been slow to take bold actions commensurate with its leadership role – in particular, with North Korea. China has emphasized the need for ongoing dialogue and attempted to encourage South Korea and the U.S. to return to the 6-party talks. This has prompted some to criticize China for being a “free rider,” averse to confrontation vis-à-vis its recalcitrant North Korean neighbor. During recent U.N. Security Council talks, China refused to support a statement criticizing North Korea’s behavior. It is likely that China stonewalled a similar U.N. Security Council effort in the aftermath of the Cheonan incident: rather than name North Korea as the party responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan, the Security Council statement ultimately criticized the attack without blaming Pyongyang. Without China’s support, U.N. sanctions against North Korea are unlikely.
However, under mounting international pressure, China appears to be taking quiet, but decisive, action with North Korea. After the Yeonpyeong incident, China cancelled Yang Jiechi’s visit to Seoul and instead sent the higher-ranking Dai Bingguo, both to Pyongyang and Seoul—possibly as a signal to Kim Jong Il. Meanwhile, Yang Jiechi stayed in Beijing and summoned the North Korean ambassador to express “concern” regarding the incident, a meeting which elicited a near-immediate response from North Korea.
The following day, the official North Korean news agency KCNA released a statement saying that “If civilian casualties resulted from the Yeonpyeong Island shelling, it is such a regrettable occasion.” Although the statement was still short of an apology, it is rare that North Korea, which insisted the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong had been “self-defense,” ever openly recognizes the “regrettable” consequences of its actions. Many considered these measures to be a sign that Beijing was finally on board with the more critical stance of the U.S. toward North Korean actions.
ANALYSIS
It remains to be seen what will happen with the 6-party talks, but both South Korea and the U.S. have expressed some willingness to participate, as long as North Korea takes decisive, verifiable steps toward denuclearization. This is a shift from their attitudes in the direct aftermath of the Yeonpyeong incident, during which it seemed unlikely that either party would entertain the possibility of returning to the talks. After the tumultuous events of the past year, it appears that both South Korea and the U.S. appear to have run out of patience and have little political leeway to show North Korea any further leniency. It will be up to China to convey to them why it is worth coming back to the bargaining table.
Thus far, despite its growing global and regional economic influence, China has not lived up to its status as political leader and power broker within East Asia. As Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd suggested in the immediate aftermath of the Yeonpyeong attack, “I believe it’s important now for China to bring all of its influence to bear on North Korea.”
Admiral Mike Mullen has also expressed this popular sentiment that China is “a world leader and leaders must lead – particularly to prevent crises and to prevent the kinds of destabilising activities that are very evident coming out of the leadership in Pyongyang.”
Although it is not expected to produce immediate progress on the 6-party talks, Chinese president Hu Jintao’s upcoming January visit to Washington, DC, will be an important opportunity and test, during which China needs to prove its ability and willingness to apply long-overdue pressure on North Korea. It is no longer politically acceptable for Beijing to stay reticent about North Korea’s provocations. As the ongoing drama on the Korean peninsula continues, all eyes will be on China to exercise responsibility and to take the requisite actions commensurate with its political and economic clout.
Jung Hwa Song is the Asia Pacific Regional Editor of Foreign Policy Digest.
