High Drama in the West Sea: China Likely to Play Leading Role in Tempering Korean Shows of Aggression
DEVELOPMENTS
North Korea’s recent artillery shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island killed two soldiers and two civilians, and has generated a frenzy of political, military, and diplomatic activity in the region. Unlike past skirmishes, the two Koreas have subsequently exchanged accusations and escalating threats of unprecedented intensity. South Korea has claimed that the joint naval exercises involving the U.S. nuclear-powered USS George Washington is a warning that North Korea will “pay a dear price for further aggression.” North Korea has promised a “merciless military counter-attack,” should it feel threatened by the joint U.S.-South Korea drills.
The joint exercises also elicited an official protest from China, which publicly declared its opposition to any unauthorized military activity taking place within its “exclusive economic zone” – referring to the international maritime law term for areas generally 200 nautical miles from a country’s coast. China, which has pushed for a meeting of delegates to the six-party nuclear talks to discuss the “complicated factors [that] have recently emerged on the Korean Peninsula,” remains the only party that has yet to publicly denounce North Korea’s attack. At the time of writing, the U.S. and South Korea have expressed reluctance to attend the proposed talks.
BACKGROUND
Since the end of the Korean War, longtime tensions among the two Koreas, China, and the U.S. have manifested themselves as conflicts in the disputed waters surrounding Yeonpyeong Island, also known as Yeonpyeong-do. The island lies two miles from the Northern Limit Line (the “NLL”), a boundary drawn by the U.N., which North Korea has referred to as an “illegal ghost line” and refuses to acknowledge.
The waters have been disputed territory over the past several decades, but there has been an increase in naval drills in the area that has led to noticeable escalation in tensions this past year. In January 2010, North Korea gave limited warning before firing off 400 rounds of artillery near the NLL; as usual, South Korea fired back. In March 2010, when South Korea and the U.S. held joint naval drills despite North Korea’s protests, an explosion sank the South Korean naval ship Cheonan. Although North Korea denied responsibility for the incident, an international investigation led by South Korea revealed that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the explosion that caused the ship to sink. When South Korea took the issue to the U.N. Security Council, the official Council statement condemned the attack, without overtly naming North Korea as the culprit. South Korea’s response to the Cheonan incident included stepping up its naval exercises, blocking North Korean vessels from using its shipping channels, and announcing economic sanctions on North Korea. The South Korean naval exercises particularly upset the North. In August 2010, North Korea fired 110 artillery rounds towards the NLL – 100 of which fell near Yeonpyeong-do – just after South Korea ended a 5-day naval drill.
Throughout this past year, the U.S. has publicly supported South Korea, via official public statements and planned joint naval exercises. As North Korea’s historic patron and main trading partner, China has not shown the same kind of public support for North Korea’s military actions, but refrains from criticism of North Korea and publicly gives equal prominence to North Korea’s version of events. The U.N. Security Council’s neutral statement regarding the Cheonan incident may have resulted from China exerting its influence as a veto-wielding permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, to counter the U.S.’s favorable relationship with South Korea.
ANALYSIS
Despite the increasingly-heated political accusations and military threats, North and South Korea remain as before: expressing anger at the other’s actions, but simultaneously exercising caution not to become the provocateur of full-scale war. Though North Korea admits to shelling Yeonpyeong-do, it claims that it was provoked by South Korea’s military drills. It has also made the uncharacteristic gesture of expressing regret over the civilian deaths, perhaps to calm rising South Korean public outrage. On November 29, South Korea cancelled live-fire artillery drills that it had announced for the following day, possibly out of a concern that North Korea would consider the drills an act of aggression and retaliate forcefully.
China’s increased economic and military standing – in addition to its already existing relationship with North Korea – appears to have earned it even greater influence with South Korea and the U.S., in matters regarding North Korea. For example, after the Cheonan incident, South Korea (and, later, the U.S.) announced economic sanctions against North Korea as a retaliatory measure; however, because Chinese merchant activity has enabled North Korea to bypass international sanctions in the past, South Korea has continuously urged China’s cooperation in an effort to make the current sanctions effective.
As the sole power-wielding influence over all other parties, China is the player to watch in this unfolding drama. So far, China seems to be doing its best to balance its close relationship with North Korea and its economic and political ties with both the U.S. and South Korea. While China refuses to condemn North Korea’s actions, it has also chosen to modify its strong disapproval of U.S.-South Korea joint naval exercises. In July 2010, China took a vehement position opposing any military exercises in the entire West Sea; days after the Yeonpyeong-do incident, China modified that position to allow only those military exercises that took place “outside of China’s exclusive economic zone.”
China has been making efforts to round up the delegation heads of the six-party talks, presumably to discuss the Yeonpyeong-do incident. Some say it is unlikely other parties will acquiesce to the meeting. South Korea sees talks as an attempt by Beijing to “save face” amid mounting international pressure, and for it to continue to exercise its leverage over North Korea ; the U.S. sees the talks as possibly more “P.R. activity” for North Korea. Still, the South Korean Foreign Minister is looking to hold high-level talks with the U.S., Russia, and Japan to discuss China’s proposal. As drama in the West Sea ensues, China’s influence and position will not only be tested, but may prove to be the most pivotal to peace in the region.
Won J. Park has worked in Beijing for the American Bar Association and was a Fulbright Scholar in South Korea from 2002-2003. She holds a B.A. from Harvard University and a J.D. from Columbia Law School.
