Ahead of the Climate Change Policy Curve in Brazil
DEVELOPMENTS
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average global temperature increased 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last century, 90% of which occurred in the last fifty years. The 2009 State of the Climate report released by the United States National Oceanic Atmosphere Agency (NOAA) states that the first six months of 2010 have been the warmest on record, increasing the rate of glacial melt and the frequency of heat waves. The same report also points to extreme weather conditions around the world in 2009, including Brazil, where forty people were killed and 376,000 were left homeless. Climate change, as these events suggest, is a global security issue and the solutions must transcend international and domestic politics so that livelihoods and the planet are protected.
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change can have a significant impact on small, rural producers and agricultural production, such as heavy flooding in Brazil and elsewhere. The Brazilian government, in turn, recently announced an investment of 200 million reais ($113 million) to mitigate the effects of climate change by promoting REDD activities (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), agricultural research, and environmental conservation.
However, a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report suggests that China, India, and Brazil, among other nations, cannot accurately measure their share of greenhouse gas emissions, while countries like Russia reported data with a significant margin of error. These data and reporting methodologies further complicate efforts for global climate policies.
BACKGROUND
Brazil is an important stakeholder in global climate change talks; scientists believe the country is the fourth-largest producer of greenhouse gases. Three-fourths of those emissions come from deforestation. In South America, the effects of global warming can mean catastrophic losses for the 30 million people, 200 indigenous cultures, and 20 percent of the planet’s animal and plant species that reside in the Amazon rainforest.
The 2005 drought in the Amazon proved to be an important lesson for the Brazilian government and public. The drought killed crops, caused disease and destroyed transportation routes. Brazil has maintained that the Amazon rain forest is an internal issue which should not be internationalized. The governor of the Brazilian state Amazonas, Eduardo Braga, has compensated farmers and river dwellers who refrain from deforestation.
Livable and usable land, even in a country the size of Brazil, is also a major issue. Brazil is the world’s biggest coffee producer and second-largest soybean grower. Unchecked climate change could heavily impact the country’s farm infrastructure, particularly its soy crop, which could lose up to 20% of cultivated land by 2020. The country could also see a 10% reduction in arable land for coffee. And research shows that rising sea levels and hurricanes could affect 25 million people – or about one-eighth of the country’s population – living along the Brazilian coast.
To adapt and prepare for these shifting weather patterns, scientists are planning for large-scale testing of genetically-modified soy crops. The national climate fund will receive $113 million next year and the government could spend about $500 million annually to reduce carbon emissions. Half of these funds would come from government’s royalties on oil production. Funds will be used to educate farmers about rainfall and weather patterns and to gauge the ways that climate change impact the country.
At the end of the Copenhagen conference in December 2009, world leaders failed to develop and adopt legally binding greenhouse emission reduction targets. The Brazilian government has further argued that “Northern Hemisphere industrial nations” should bear the burden of reducing greenhouse gases. But public opinion has put pressure on Brazilian politicians which, in effect, has led the government to allocate resources to reduce deforestation and carbon emissions.
Brazil was among the fifty nations that pledged to greenhouse gas reduction targets in Copenhagen. Shortly after the summit, President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva signed the National Climate Change Policy into law. Under the law, thirty-two emission reducing activities – like increased hydroelectric power-generation capacity and the National Ethanol Program – are being implemented. However, analysts note that while the new law is implemented, Brazil’s use of oil-money to finance sustainable growth is something that is to be observed closely.
ANALYSIS
It is important to discuss and tackle climate change from a global security framework; the world continues to experience death, destruction, crop loss and forced migration related to climate change at an increasing rate. Political and economic interests become secondary when viewed through this prism. From an economic standpoint, inaction to tackle the issue could cost anywhere between 5 and 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP), while it would take only 1% of GDP to mitigate the most damaging effects.
Building upon the United Nations climate talks in Copenhagen, the Cancún talks in November should make progress on implementing the Copenhagen Accord, and commit to protecting tropical forests, the widespread development and sharing of green technologies, and curbing greenhouse gases. Developed nations have pledged up to $30 billion in aid for developing countries to reduce droughts, floods, and heat waves. The U.S. alone has pledged $3.2 billion. However, some of the developed nation funds were committed prior to Copenhagen and have yet to be delivered. Still though, projects from “Nepal to Mali” have begun. Although Brazil was initially hesitant to embrace the challenge, it has demonstrated exceptional leadership in pursuing and implementing energy reform over the last few years.
If the Cancún talks are to be considered a success, the U.S. must be prepared to meet the world halfway. The U.S. Senate should follow Brazil’s policy lead and demonstrate that it is a committed party to tackling climate change by passing the American Power Act, which sets reduction standards for greenhouse gas emissions, creates green energy jobs, and most importantly, reduces greenhouse gas emissions to 17% of 2005 levels by 2050. According to Senator John Kerry, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the proposed legislation would reduce the deficit by $19 billion. The passage of this legislation would demonstrate that the U.S. is a strong international leader committed to tackling the issue, but amid concerns of a weak economic recovery and continued job loss – all within the context of the upcoming mid-term Congressional elections – it looks like no such thing will happen in the near future.
Niki Shah is a frequent contributor to Foreign Policy Digest.
